Global| Nov 13 2015U.S. Retail Sales Remain Little Changed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places in October edged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) following no change during the prior two months. September was revised from +0.1%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action [...]
Overall retail sales including food services & drinking places in October edged 0.1% higher (1.8% y/y) following no change during the prior two months. September was revised from +0.1%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) after a 0.4% decline, revised from -0.3%. A 0.4% increase had been expected. During the last ten years, there has been a 92% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in real GDP.
Sales in the retail control group do not include autos, gasoline, building materials & food services. They align with the consumer spending estimates in the GDP accounts. Sales in this grouping rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after a 0.1% September rise, revised from -0.1%. Gasoline service station sales fell 0.9% (-20.0% y/y), down for the fourth straight month.
Light motor vehicle & parts sales declined 0.5% (+6.0% y/y) after a 1.4% gain. The rise compared to a 0.4% increase in unit sales of cars and light trucks. Building materials & garden equipment sales gained 0.9% (2.7% y/y) following declines in three of the prior four months.
In other discretionary spending categories, general merchandise store sales fell 0.4% (+2.6% y/y) after a 0.5% gain. Electronics & appliance stores sales also fell 0.4% (-3.2% y/y) and reversed September's 0.4% rise. Clothing and accessory store sales eased slightly (+4.0% y/y) for the third straight month. To the upside, sporting goods, hobby shop, book & music store sales increased 0.4% (6.2% y/y) after a 1.3% jump and sales of furniture & home furnishings also increased 0.4% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.6% rise. Internet sales surged 1.4% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Restaurant sales rose 0.5% (7.0% y/y) following a 0.2% decline.
In the nondiscretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales were firm and posted a 0.7% increase (3.9% y/y) following a 0.2% increase. Food & beverage store sales fell 0.3% (+2.2% y/y), down for the second straight month.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Permazero is the title of yesterday's speech by James Bullard, President & CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and it is available here.
| Retail Spending (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 5.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline, Building Supplies & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 |
| Retail Sales | -0.0 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 1.1 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Gasoline Stations | -0.9 | -4.0 | -2.2 | -20.0 | -2.7 | -0.7 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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