Global| Jan 13 2017U.S. Retail Sales Increase Driven by Autos & Gasoline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% (4.4% y/y) during December following a 0.2% November rise, revised from 0.1%. October's increase also was revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6%. A 0.7% increase had been expected [...]
Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.6% (4.4% y/y) during December following a 0.2% November rise, revised from 0.1%. October's increase also was revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6%. A 0.7% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During Q4'16, retail sales grew at a 6.8% annual rate, the quickest rise since Q2'14.
A 2.4% rise (7.4% y/y) in purchases of motor vehicles & parts followed a 0.2% decline in November. The gain compared to a 3.1% increase in unit sales of light vehicles. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.2% (3.8% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. A 0.5% increase had been expected. Sales at gasoline service stations also lifted retail spending last month. The 2.0% increase raised sales 7.4% y/y, but that followed little-change in November. Retail sales excluding both autos & gasoline remained steady (3.5% y/y) following a 0.3% rise.
In other discretionary spending categories, furniture store sales increased 0.5% (3.9% y/y) following no change, but electronics & appliance store sales fell 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Clothing store sales remained steady (3.3% y/y) for a second straight month, while general merchandise store sales also declined 0.5% (-1.7% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick. Sporting goods store sales increased 0.2% (-3.1% y/y) following declines in four of the prior five months.
In the non-discretionary spending categories, health & personal care store sales increased 0.3% (5.3 y/y), the same as during the month prior. Food & beverage store sales declined 0.3% (+3.9% y/y) following no change.
Sales at food service & drinking places declined 0.8% (+5.1% y/y) after a 1.2% jump.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.2 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 3.7 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 4.0 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 2.4 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 3.3 |
| Gasoline Stations | 2.0 | -0.0 | 2.7 | 7.4 | -6.3 | -19.2 | -2.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.8 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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