Global| Apr 13 2011U.S. Retail Sales Gain Is Widespread
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail & food service sales rose by 0.4% last month following a 1.1% February increase, revised up from 1.0%. Sales have risen for nine consecutive months and the latest increase left the y/y gain firm at 7.1%. The March rise [...]
Total retail & food service sales rose by 0.4% last month following a 1.1% February increase, revised up from 1.0%. Sales have risen for nine consecutive months and the latest increase left the y/y gain firm at 7.1%. The March rise roughly matched Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain, according to the Action Economics survey. Lately, forward momentum in sales has picked up. During the last three months, sales rose at a 9.4% annual rate versus a 6.5% increase during all of last year. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.8% last month after an upwardly revised 1.1% February gain. The increase roughly matched expectations for a 0.7% rise. During the last three months, nonauto sales rose at a 12.0% annual rate after a 5.7% increase last year.
Strength in retail purchases occurred despite the lackluster performance of auto sales. Motor vehicle sales fell 1.7% last month and reversed a 1.0% February increase, revised down from 2.3%. The decline is consistent with the 2.4% drop in unit motor vehicle sales reported earlier this month. In addition, higher prices pulled sales of gasoline service stations up another 2.6% after a 2.4% February gain, double the advance estimate. Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales rose 0.5% in March and at a 6.6% annual rate during the last three months.
Discretionary spending firmed further. Sales of furniture, home furnishings and appliances jumped 2.8% and at a 19.0% annual rate during the last three months. March sales at furniture stores surged 3.6% while sales at electronics & appliance stores increased 2.1%. March clothing store sales rose 0.6% and at a 14.5% rate during the last three months. Finally, sales at general merchandise outlets increased 0.4% and at a 7.1% annual rate since December. Building material store sales rose 2.2% after two months of poor sales related to severe winter weather. Also consumers' appetite for eating out returned as sales at food service & drinking places rose 1.0% and at a 13.7% over the last three months. Store shopping precluded catalogue sales which slipped 0.3% (+12.4% y/y) and reversed a slim 0.3% February increase. Currently, sales by electronic shopping & mail-order houses account for roughly ten percent of nonauto retail sales less building materials & gasoline.
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 7.1 | 6.5 | -6.4 | -1.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6.5 | 5.7 | -5.1 | 2.3 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7.3 | 6.9 | -7.1 | -1.4 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -1.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 10.3 | -12.1 | -13.9 |
| Retail excluding Autos | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6.7 | 6.1 | -5.9 | 2.3 |
| Gasoline | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 16.7 | 16.2 | -24.7 | 9.9 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | -2.4 | 1.0 |
| Food Service | 1.0 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 2.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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