Global| Dec 13 2019U.S. Retail Sales Disappoint
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (3.3% y/y) during November following a 0.4% October gain, revised from 0.3%. A 0.5% November rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & [...]
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (3.3% y/y) during November following a 0.4% October gain, revised from 0.3%. A 0.5% November rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts edged 0.1% higher (3.0% y/y) last month after rising 0.3% in October. Expectations had been for a 0.4% improvement.
A 0.6% decline (-3.3% y/y) in apparel store sales held back the overall sales increase. It was the third decline in the last four months. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music shop store sales also were weak and fell 0.5% (+3.4% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. Finally, sales at building & garden equipment stores held steady (0.4% y/y) after falling in all but one of the prior six months. Offsetting these weaknesses, sales via the internet rose 0.8% (11.5% y/y) after a 0.6 rise. Electronics & appliance store sales also were firm and rose 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% in October. Motor vehicle & parts dealerships sales improved 0.5% during November (4.9% y/y) after increasing 1.0% in October. General merchandise store sales rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) but department store sales fell 0.6% (-7.2% y/y), down in most every month this year. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores also rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.7% decline.
Gasoline service station sales improved 0.7% (0.5% y/y) after a 1.7% rise, even though gasoline prices fell 0.7% last month.
Health & personal care store sales posted a 1.1% decline (-0.4 y/y) after rising 0.5% in October. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
Eating out became less in vogue of late as food & drinking establishment sales fell 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% lower in October.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (% chg) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
| Retail Sales | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
| Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | 0.7 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
