Global| Nov 03 2016U.S. Productivity Growth Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Growth in nonfarm output per hour during Q3'16 improved to 3.1% (0.0% y/y) after a 0.2% Q2 decline, revised from -0.6%. A 1.8% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the strongest rise in two years. [...]
Growth in nonfarm output per hour during Q3'16 improved to 3.1% (0.0% y/y) after a 0.2% Q2 decline, revised from -0.6%. A 1.8% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the strongest rise in two years. Output rose 3.4% (1.6% y/y) while hours worked lengthened 0.3% (1.7% y/y). The gain in productivity was accompanied by a 3.4% increase in compensation, which was weaker than the 3.7% Q2 gain. The 2.3% y/y rise left it slightly below the gains during all of 2015 and 2014. Unit labor costs edged 0.3% higher (2.3% y/y), down sharply from the 3.9% Q2 jump. A 1.2% rise had been expected.
In the manufacturing sector, productivity improved 1.0% (0.2% y/y) after a 0.5% decline. So far this year, growth has averaged 0.6%, up slightly versus the last few years. Compensation improved 3.2% (3.1% y/y) following a 6.2% jump. That increase lifted unit labor costs by 2.2% (2.9% y/y), roughly in line with the last two years.
The productivity & cost figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey and are found in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. Productivity Growth Flowing Downstream from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Productivity & Costs (SAAR, %) | Q3'16 | Q2'16 | Q1'16 | Q3'16 Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Business Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 3.1 | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Compensation per Hour | 3.4 | 3.7 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 0.3 | 3.9 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| Manufacturing Sector | |||||||
| Output per Hour (Productivity) | 1.0 | -0.5 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Compensation per Hour | 3.2 | 6.2 | -4.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| Unit Labor Costs | 2.2 | 6.8 | -6.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 0.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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