Global| Oct 15 2014U.S. Producer Prices Unexpectedly Slip; Core Index Unchanged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) during September following an unrevised zero change in August. A 0.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy [...]
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) during September following an unrevised zero change in August. A 0.1% rise was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy remained unchanged (1.6% y/y). A 0.1% uptick was expected.
Goods prices (34% of the total index) declined 0.2% (+1.5% y/y). Energy prices fell 0.7% (-0.7% y/y). Gasoline prices were off 2.6% (-4.7% y/y) but home heating oil prices gained 2.9% (-6.8% y/y). Natural gas prices improved 1.1% (6.2% y/y) but electric power costs again slipped 0.2% (+3.5% y/y). Finished food prices declined 0.7% (+3.7% y/y), the fourth drop in five months. Beef & veal prices declined 3.7% (26.8% y/y) but dairy product prices gained 1.3% (14.2% y/y). Final demand prices for goods excluding food & energy improved 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Passenger car prices declined 0.2% (+0.7% y/y), down for the third straight month while furniture prices gained 0.2% (1.0% y/y). Private capital equipment prices improved 0.1% (1.3% y/y).
Services prices (64% of the total index) edged 0.1% lower (+1.6% y/y) after a 0.3% increase. Prices for transportation of passengers declined 1.0% (3.5% y/y). Prices for transportation and warehousing of goods for final demand gained 0.1% (2.7% y/y).
Construction prices for final demand (2% of the total index) remained unchanged (3.0% y/y) for the second straight month.
Intermediate demand prices of processed goods ticked 0.1% higher (+1.3% y/y) after a 0.3% decline.
Measured using the old formula, which is being phased out as the headline series, producer prices declined 0.2% (+2.1% y/y) after a 0.4% August shortfall. Food costs retreated 0.6% (+5.2% y/y) while energy prices declined 0.9% (-0.2% y/y). Prices excluding food & energy improved 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after two months of 0.1% gain.
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figure is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.9 |
| Excluding Food & Energy | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.9 | -- |
| Goods | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 6.8 |
| Foods | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 8.5 |
| Energy | -0.7 | -1.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 0.2 | 17.5 |
| Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3.4 |
| Services | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Construction | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | 0.1 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 8.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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