Global| Sep 30 2004U.S. Personal Income Up Moderately
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income grew a moderate 0.4% last month following the 0.2% uptick in July that was revised slightly up. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% increase. Wages & salaries rose 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) and earlier months' figures [...]
Personal income grew a moderate 0.4% last month following the 0.2% uptick in July that was revised slightly up. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% increase.
Wages & salaries rose 0.4% (+4.6% y/y) and earlier months' figures were revised higher. Manufacturing wages jumped 0.8% (2.6% y/y) while wages in private service producing industries rose 0.3% (5.4% y/y).
Personal disposable income rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) and inflation adjusted disposable income rose the same 0.4% (1.6% y/y).
"Labor's Share" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
Consumer spending was unchanged following the upwardly revised 1.1% jump in July. Durables purchases fell due to lower light vehicle sales. Purchases of non-durable goods and services both rose a modest 0.2%.
The PCE chain price index fell slightly for the second consecutive month. Prices less food & energy also fell (+1.4% y/y) as durables prices (-0.5% m/m, -2.1% y/y) continued lower. Services prices rose just 0.1% (2.5% y/y).
| Disposition of Personal Income | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.4% | 0.2% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| Personal Consumption | 0.0% | 1.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% |
| Savings Rate | 0.9% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| PCE Chain Price Index | -0.0% | -0.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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