Global| Jul 31 2012U.S. Personal Income Improves Again -- And It's Saved
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Consumers are growing more cautious.Personal income increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) last month following a revised 0.3% May rise. A 0.4% June gain was expected. Wages and salaries were firm and posted a 0.5% rise (3.5% y/y) after a little- [...]
Consumers are growing more cautious.Personal
income increased 0.5% (3.5% y/y) last month following a revised 0.3%
May rise. A 0.4% June gain was expected. Wages and salaries were firm and
posted a 0.5% rise (3.5% y/y) after a little-revised 0.1% May uptick. A 0.9%
increase (-0.7% y/y) in interest earnings and a 1.4% jump (9.5% y/y) in
dividend income provided the real strength to the income rise. Disposable
income rose a firmer 0.4% (3.2% y/y) while inflation-adjusted take-home
pay increased 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after an upwardly revised 0.5% May rise.
Consumers took the opportunity afforded by the income gain to lift their savings by 12.1% m/m and increase the savings rate to 4.4%, the highest level in twelve months.
Personal consumption expenditures slipped marginally in June for the second consecutive month. A 0.1% rise was expected. Adjusted for prices, spending fell 0.1% (2.0% y/y). In real terms, inflation-adjusted spending on durable goods was unchanged (8.2% y/y) while real outlays on nondurables fell 0.4% (+1.5% y/y). Real services spending was flat m/m (1.2% y/y).
The PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.5% y/y) in June after a 0.2% May decline. Durable goods prices slipped 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) while nondurables costs dipped 0.1% as well (+1.3% y/y). Services prices rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y). Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y), its strongest increase since March.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Personal Income & Outlays(%) | Jun | May | April | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | -4.8 |
| Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -4.3 |
| Disposable Personal Income | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | -2.7 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.8 | -1.9 |
| Personal Saving Rate | 4.4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.7 (Jun'11) |
4.2 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Real Disposable Income | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | -2.8 |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures |
-0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
