Global| Oct 29 2020U.S. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in September
Summary
• Pending home sales fall for the first time since April. • Sales drop in all the major regions except in the Northeast. Pending home sales fell 2.2% (+20.5% y/y) in September, the first m/m fall since April, after an 8.8% rise in [...]
• Pending home sales fall for the first time since April.
• Sales drop in all the major regions except in the Northeast.
Pending home sales fell 2.2% (+20.5% y/y) in September, the first m/m fall since April, after an 8.8% rise in August, according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The index level was at 130.0 (2001=100) in September, down slightly from 132.9 in August but up meaningfully from a recent trough of 69.0 in April.
Pending home sales slid in most of the major regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest dropped 3.2% (+18.5% y/y) in September, reversing an 8.6% gain in the previous month. Sales in the South fell 3.0% (+19.6% y/y) following an 8.9% rise. Sales in the West declined 2.6% (+19.3% y/y) after a 12.7% advance. These monthly drops were the first since April. To the upside, sales in the Northeast rose 2.0% (27.7% y/y) after a 4.3% increase, registering the fifth consecutive m/m gain.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | -2.2 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 20.5 | 1.1 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
| Northeast | 2.0 | 4.3 | 25.2 | 27.7 | 0.8 | -5.0 | 0.6 |
| Midwest | -3.2 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 18.5 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -2.5 |
| South | -3.0 | 8.9 | 0.9 | 19.6 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
| West | -2.6 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 19.3 | 1.3 | -7.3 | -2.5 |
Winnie Tapasanun
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Winnie Tapasanun has been working for Haver Analytics since 2013. She has ~20 years of working in the financial services industry. As Vice President and Economic Analyst at Globicus International, Inc., a New York-based company specializing in macroeconomics and financial markets, Winnie oversaw the company’s business operations, managed financial and economic data, and wrote daily reports on macroeconomics and financial markets. Prior to working at Globicus, she was Investment Promotion Officer at the New York Office of the Thailand Board of Investment (BOI) where she wrote monthly reports on the U.S. economic outlook, wrote reports on the outlook of key U.S. industries, and assisted investors on doing business and investment in Thailand. Prior to joining the BOI, she was Adjunct Professor teaching International Political Economy/International Relations at the City College of New York. Prior to her teaching experience at the CCNY, Winnie successfully completed internships at the United Nations. Winnie holds an MA Degree from Long Island University, New York. She also did graduate studies at Columbia University in the City of New York and doctoral requirements at the Graduate Center of the City University of New York. Her areas of specialization are international political economy, macroeconomics, financial markets, political economy, international relations, and business development/business strategy. Her regional specialization includes, but not limited to, Southeast Asia and East Asia. Winnie is bilingual in English and Thai with competency in French. She loves to travel (~30 countries) to better understand each country’s unique economy, fascinating culture and people as well as the global economy as a whole.
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