Global| Jul 02 2021U.S. Payroll Strength Exceeds Expectations in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Service-sector gains led by leisure & hospitality. • Average hourly earnings growth moderates. • Unemployment rate edges higher. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 850,000 (5.8% y/y) during June. It was the largest increase since [...]
• Service-sector gains led by leisure & hospitality.
• Average hourly earnings growth moderates.
• Unemployment rate edges higher.
Nonfarm payroll employment increased 850,000 (5.8% y/y) during June. It was the largest increase since August of last year. A 700,000 rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. This gain was accompanied by a modest upward revision to the May increase to 583,000 from 559,000. The April gain was lessened to 269,000 from 278,000.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% last month (3.6% y/y) following a 0.4% May rise, revised from 0.5%. A 0.4% increase had been expected.
The unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.9% in May, compared to expectations for a drop to 5.6%. The labor force rose 151,000 after falling 53,000 in May. At the same time, employment in the household survey declined 18,000 after rising 444,000. The overall unemployment rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, fell to 9.8% from 10.2%, the lowest level since March of last year.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 850 | 583 | 269 | 5.8% | -5.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 559 | 278 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 15 | 39 | -35 | 2.7 | -5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Construction | -7 | -22 | -9 | 3.2 | -3.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 642 | 497 | 267 | 7.1 | -6.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Government | 188 | 67 | 43 | 2.3 | -3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.7 | 34.8 | 34.9 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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