Global| Feb 06 2015U.S. Payroll Jobs & Earnings Grow More Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Nudges Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) Jan Dec Nov Y/Y 2014 2013 2012 Payroll Employment 257 329 423 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% Previous -- 252 353 -- -- -- -- Manufacturing 22 26 45 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.7 Construction 39 44 30 5.1 4.8 3.7 2.1 Private [...]
Improvement in the job market is strengthening. Payroll employment increased 257,000 (2.3% y/y) during January following upwardly revised gains of 329,000 and 423,000 during the prior two months. The average change in payrolls during the last three months of 336,000 was the strongest since November 1997. The latest rise compared to expectations for 230,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Moderate growth in payrolls was evident across sectors. It was accompanied by a 0.5% rebound in average hourly earnings that followed an unrevised 0.2% decline. A 0.3% gain was expected. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.7% versus expectations for stability at 5.6%.
| Employment: (M/M Chg., 000s) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 257 | 329 | 423 | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Previous | -- | 252 | 353 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 22 | 26 | 45 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Construction | 39 | 44 | 30 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| Private Service Producing | 209 | 247 | 338 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Government | -10 | 9 | 9 | 0.4 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.6 | 34.4 (Jan.'14) |
34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.5 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.6 (Jan.'14) |
6.1 | 7.4 | 8.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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