Global| May 06 2016U.S. Payroll Increase Disappoints as Jobless Rate Steadies and Earnings Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The April labor market report contained mixed signals. Growth in nonfarm payrolls eased to 160,000 (1.9% y/y) following downwardly revised gains of 208,000 and 233,000 during the prior two months. A 208,000 increase had been expected [...]
The April labor market report contained mixed signals. Growth in nonfarm payrolls eased to 160,000 (1.9% y/y) following downwardly revised gains of 208,000 and 233,000 during the prior two months. A 208,000 increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Weakened readings for construction and government hiring explain much of the disappointment. The unemployment rate remained stable, as expected, at 5.0%. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached and part-time for economic reasons, fell to 9.7%. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% (2.5% y/y), the strongest rise since January.
The labor market data is contained Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
What Does Online Job Search Tell Us about the Labor Market? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 160 | 208 | 233 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Previous | -- | 215 | 245 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 4 | -29 | -16 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Construction | 1 | 41 | 13 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Private Service-Producing | 174 | 184 | 242 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Government | -11 | 24 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 (Apr.'15) |
34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.4 (Apr.'15) |
5.3 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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