Global| Oct 04 2019U.S. Payroll Employment & Wages Disappoint As Jobless Rate Falls
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Job growth moderated recently. Nonfarm payrolls increased 136,000 (1.4% y/y) during September following a 168,000 August rise, revised from 130,000. July's increase also was revised higher to 166,000 from 159,000. A 145,000 September [...]
Job growth moderated recently. Nonfarm payrolls increased 136,000 (1.4% y/y) during September following a 168,000 August rise, revised from 130,000. July's increase also was revised higher to 166,000 from 159,000. A 145,000 September increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. So far this year, payrolls have risen an average 167,000 per month after a 223,000 monthly average in 2018. Average hourly earnings in the private sector edged slightly lower in September following a 0.4% increase. A 0.3% rise had been expected. Growth during the last twelve months of 2.9% remained lower than the recent y/y peak of 3.4% logged in February.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% following three months at 3.7%. It was the lowest rate since December 1969. Expectations were for 3.7% unemployment. Employment in the household survey rose 391,000 (1.4% y/y) and the labor force increased 117,000 (1.2% y/y). The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, declined to 6.9%, the lowest level since December 2000.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 136 | 168 | 166 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 130 | 159 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -2 | 2 | 4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| Construction | 7 | 4 | -3 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.1 |
| Private Service-Producing | 109 | 121 | 126 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Government | 22 | 46 | 44 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | -0.0 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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