Global| Oct 05 2018U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Rise Modestly But Jobless Rate Falls; Earnings Growth Is Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls increased 134,000 (1.7% y/y) during September, though it was the weakest increase in twelve months. The August rise, however, was revised to 270,000 from 201,000, and the [...]
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Nonfarm payrolls increased 134,000 (1.7% y/y) during September, though it was the weakest increase in twelve months. The August rise, however, was revised to 270,000 from 201,000, and the July gain was increased to 165,000 from 147,000. A 190,000 rise in September employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The unemployment rate declined to 3.7% last month, the lowest level since December 1969. A dip to 3.8% had been expected. The total unemployment rate, including those marginally attached and working part-time for economic reasons, notched higher to 7.5% from 7.4%, but remained nearly the lowest since 2001.
Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% during September for the fourth month in the last five. The 2.8% y/y increase was slightly below August's cycle high of 2.9%. The monthly gain matched expectations.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 134 | 270 | 165 | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 201 | 147 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 18 | 5 | 22 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.2 |
| Construction | 23 | 26 | 19 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 5.0 |
| Private Service-Producing | 75 | 217 | 96 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Government | 13 | 16 | 28 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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