Global| Dec 04 2013U.S. New Home Sales Surge as Prices Plummet
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during October jumped 25.4% to 444,000 following a 6.6% September decline. These figures were released jointly due to the federal government shutdown. The latest figure compared to expectations for 435,000 sales in the [...]
New home sales during October jumped 25.4% to 444,000 following a 6.6% September decline. These figures were released jointly due to the federal government shutdown. The latest figure compared to expectations for 435,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The August sales figures were revised lower. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price of a new home declined 4.5% to $245,800 (-0.6% y/y) which was the lowest level since November of last year. The average price of a new home improved 2.5% during October to $321,700, up 12.7% from a year ago.
Sales mostly improved around the country. In the Midwest, the one-third sales jump to 63,000 (21.2% y/y) recovered September's drop. That was followed by the South where sales rose 28.2% to 259,000 (41.5% y/y). Sales in the Northeast gained 19.2% to 31,000 (29.2% y/y) and new home sales in the West increased 15.2% to 91,000 (-14.2% y/y).
The inventory of unsold homes rose roughly one-quarter y/y and it's been backing up this year. The months' sales supply of new homes dropped sharply to 4.9. The length of time to sell a new home fell to a new low of 2.6 months, compared to 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure is from the Action Economics survey and is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 444 | 354 | 379 | 21.6 | 368 | 306 | 321 |
| Northeast | 31 | 26 | 29 | 29.2 | 29 | 21 | 31 |
| Midwest | 63 | 47 | 57 | 21.2 | 47 | 45 | 45 |
| South | 259 | 202 | 212 | 41.5 | 196 | 168 | 173 |
| West | 91 | 79 | 81 | -14.2 | 97 | 72 | 74 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 245,800 | 257,400 | 258,600 | -0.6 | 242,108 | 224,317 | 221,242 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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