Global| Feb 25 2015U.S. New Home Sales Hold Steady at Cycle High as Prices Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home sales during January were little-changed at 481,000 (5.3% y/y) following 482,000 sales during December, initially reported as 481,000. The latest figure remained nearly the highest since June 2008 and surpassed expectations [...]
New home sales during January were little-changed at 481,000 (5.3% y/y) following 482,000 sales during December, initially reported as 481,000. The latest figure remained nearly the highest since June 2008 and surpassed expectations for 470,000 sales in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These volume numbers are quoted at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
The median price for a new home in January declined 2.6% to $294,300 (+9.1 y/y), pulling back from the record high of $302,100 in December, revised from $298,100. The average price of a new home fell 8.0% to $348,300 (+3.3% y/y) from $378,700, revised from $377,800.
Sales in the Northeast fell by more than one-half (-50.0% y/y) to 15,000. Sales in the West declined 0.8% (+5.0% y/y) to 126,000. A 19.2% rise in Midwest sales to 62,000 (21.6% y/y) offset much of these declines. Sales in the South also gained 2.2% (8.6% y/y) to 278,000, the highest level since 2008.
The inventory of unsold homes increased 1.4% to 218,000 (15.3% y/y), the highest level since March 2010 and up by roughly one-half from the 2012 low. The months' sales supply of new homes fell m/m to 5.4 months versus last year's low of 3.9 months. The length of time to sell a new home moved slightly higher m/m to 3.3 months, but still was down from 14.0 months at the end of 2009.
The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON database. The consensus expectation figure from the Action Economics survey is available in the AS1REPNA database.
| U.S. New Home Sales | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total SAAR, 000s | 481 | 482 | 446 | 5.3 | 439 | 430 | 368 |
| Northeast | 15 | 31 | 28 | -50.0 | 27 | 31 | 29 |
| Midwest | 62 | 52 | 59 | 21.6 | 58 | 61 | 47 |
| South | 278 | 272 | 232 | 8.6 | 245 | 233 | 195 |
| West | 126 | 127 | 127 | 5.0 | 109 | 106 | 97 |
| Median Price (NSA, $) | 294,300 | 302,100 | 298,300 | 9.1 | 282,300 | 265,092 | 242,108 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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