Global| Dec 18 2013U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total mortgage market index dropped 5.5% last week (-54.1% y/y) to the lowest level since late-2008. Home purchase mortgage applications dropped 6.1% last week (-11.8% y/y). [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total mortgage market index dropped 5.5% last week (-54.1% y/y) to the lowest level since late-2008. Home purchase mortgage applications dropped 6.1% last week (-11.8% y/y). Applications to refinance existing loans fell 4.3% w/w, off roughly two-thirds versus December 2012.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year mortgage was fairly stable last week at 3.75%, still up versus the early-May low of 2.89%. The rate remained below the late-August high of 3.93%. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan increased to 4.73% last week while the rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan moved higher to 4.68%. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage gained w/w to 3.35% and remained up from its low of 2.59% at the beginning of May.
Applications for fixed interest rate loans dropped 56.3% y/y while adjustable rate loan applications gained 10.9% y/y. The average mortgage loan size was $224,100. The average loan size for home purchases was $264,900 last week while for refinancings it was $202,900.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 12/13/13 | 12/06/13 | 11/29/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 374.6 | 396.2 | 392.1 | -54.1 | 813.8 | 572.3 | 659.3 |
| Purchase | 174.7 | 186.1 | 184.5 | -11.8 | 187.8 | 182.6 | 199.8 |
| Refinancing | 1,565.4 | 1,635.4 | 1,602.1 | -65.4 | 4,505.0 | 2,858.4 | 3,348.1 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.73 | 3.64 | 2.90 (12/12) |
3.25 | 3.97 | 4.39 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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