Global| Apr 24 2019U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue to Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index decreased 7.3% (+6.8% y/y) during the week ending April 19. It was the third consecutive weekly drop. Applications to purchase a home fell 4.1% [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index decreased 7.3% (+6.8% y/y) during the week ending April 19. It was the third consecutive weekly drop. Applications to purchase a home fell 4.1% (+2.6% y/y) after rising for six straight weeks, while refinance activity declined 11.0% (+12.9% y/y), down for the third straight week.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage of 3.98% compared to a high of 4.71% in November 2018. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan of 4.59% compared to a November high of 5.33%. The rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage edged up to 4.42% and the rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage rate increased to 4.02%.
The average mortgage loan size declined to $326,300 (+10.2% y/y), down from the record of $381,700 in late-March. For purchases, the average loan size edged up to a near-record $336,600 (6.2% y/y). The average loan refinancing size fell sharply to $310,500 (+18.9% y/y) after reaching record high levels in late-March and early-April. These series date back to 1990.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 6.9% y/y while adjustable rate loan applications gained 5.4% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 4/19/2019 | 4/12/2019 | 4/05/2019 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -7.3 | -3.5 | -5.6 | 6.8 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
| Purchase | -4.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
| Refinancing | -11.0 | -8.2 | -11.4 | 12.9 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.98 | 3.95 | 3.94 | 4.25 (Apr '18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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