Global| Nov 20 2019U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index fell 2.2% (+75.7% y/y) in the week ending November 15 after strengthening 9.6% in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan declined 7.7% (+179.5% y/y) [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index fell 2.2% (+75.7% y/y) in the week ending November 15 after strengthening 9.6% in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan declined 7.7% (+179.5% y/y) and reversed most of the prior week's increase. Purchase applications remained firm and posted a 6.7% rise (18.8% y/y) following a 5.1% gain.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage of 3.48% was little changed from 3.50% in the week prior. These rates were below the 4.71% high early last November. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan eased to 4.09% from 4.12%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage slipped to 4.01%. The rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage increased to 3.59%, its highest level since early September.
The average mortgage loan size declined to $309,800 (+7.0% y/y), continuing to fall from the peak of $381,700 late in March. The average loan size for purchases declined to $330,500 (+7.4% y/y), but has been rising since July. For refinancings, the average loan size slipped w/w to $295,600 (+13.5%) after falling from its $438,900 peak late in March.
Applications for fixed-rate loans rose 80.7% y/y. Adjustable rate loan applications increased 11.5% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 11/15/19 | 11/08/19 | 11/01/19 | Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | -2.2 | 9.6 | -0.1 | 75.7 | -10.4 | -17.8 | 15.6 |
| Purchase | 6.7 | 5.1 | -2.5 | 18.8 | 2.1 | 5.6 | 13.3 |
| Refinancing | -7.7 | 12.9 | 1.8 | 179.5 | -24.3 | -34.0 | 17.3 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.48 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 4.67 (Nov.'18) | 4.35 | 3.59 | 3.22 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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