Global| Dec 19 2012U.S. Mortgage Applications Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications slumped 12.3% last week (23.9% y/y) to the lowest level since early last month. The decline was led by a 13.8% drop (+28.5% y/y) in applications to refinance an [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association index of total mortgage applications slumped 12.3% last week (23.9% y/y) to the lowest level since early last month. The decline was led by a 13.8% drop (+28.5% y/y) in applications to refinance an existing loan. Home purchase applications fell 4.8% last week (+9.0% y/y). Applications for fixed interest rate loans rose 26.3% y/y as rates fell. Adjustable rate loan applications fell by 20.6% y/y.
The average mortgage loan size was $218,900 (-3.3% y/y). The average for home purchases was $244,800 (12.9% y/y) while for refinancings it was down 6.5% y/y to $213,700. The average size of a fixed rate loan was $206,500 and for variable rate loans it was $586,400.
The effective rate on fixed-interest, conventional 15-year mortgages was roughly unchanged at 2.89% last week and remained down compared to 3.47% in January. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate was 3.63% while the rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan was 3.82%. Though it's recently narrowed, the spread between 15- and 30-year loan rates continued wide by historical standards. The effective interest rate on an adjustable 5-year mortgage was stable at 2.74%, down from its 3.93% high during February of last year.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. The figures for weekly mortgage applications are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 12/14/12 | 12/07/12 | 11/30/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 817.2 | 931.2 | 877.0 | 33.9 | 572.3 | 659.3 | 736.4 |
| Purchase | 198.0 | 208.0 | 206.5 | 9.0 | 182.6 | 199.8 | 263.5 |
| Refinancing | 4,519.1 | 5,242.9 | 4,856.7 | 28.5 | 2,858.4 | 3,348.1 | 3,509.2 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 2.89 | 2.91 | 2.93 | 3.54 (12/11) |
3.97 | 4.39 | 4.85 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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