Global| Aug 20 2009U.S. Leading Indicators Signal Economic Recovery With Fourth Straight Monthly Increase
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators continued to suggest a pending economic recovery. The July composite index of leaders rose another 0.6% after gains of 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.1% during the prior three months. The [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators continued to suggest a pending economic recovery. The July composite index of leaders rose another 0.6% after gains of 0.8%, 1.2% and 1.1% during the prior three months. The combined 3.8% rise during those four months was the strongest since early-2002 while the index itself was at the highest level since last June. The leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The Conference Board initially estimates two series, orders for consumer goods and orders for capital goods.
For the fourth straight month, nearly three-quarters of the ten components of the leading index increased.
Again suggesting that the rate of decline in the economy is slowing were the coincident indicators which were unchanged m/m. This compares with monthly declines of 0.6%-to-1.1% dating back to September.
In a sign that excesses in the U.S. economy are diminishing, the lagging index fell for the seventh month in the last eight. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (a measure of economic excess) rose again m/m to the highest level since December.The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | July | June | May | April 6-Month % (AR) | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6.2 | -2.8 | -0.3 | 1.5 |
| Coincident | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -5.4 | -0.9 | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Lagging | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.3 | -8.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
