Global| Jan 23 2015U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Continue To Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.5% last month (6.4% y/y) following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.6%. Eighty five percent of the component series improved m/m. A steeper interest [...]
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.5% last month (6.4% y/y) following a 0.4% November rise, revised from 0.6%. Eighty five percent of the component series improved m/m. A steeper interest rate yield curve, the leading credit index, fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance, average consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and a higher ISM new orders index led the way upward. Building permits declined and the average workweek was unchanged. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The index of coincident indicators edged 0.2% higher (3.0 y/y) following a 0.5% increase, revised from 0.4%. Three of the component series increased last month, including nonfarm payroll employment, personal income less transfers and business sales. Industrial production fell slightly.
The lagging indicators index increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% rise during November. During the last three months, growth has slowed to 2.3% (AR) from 5.1% as of March, suggesting that the buildup of economic excess has slowed. More C&I loans outstanding and the rise in the services CPI accounted for most of last month's increase, followed by a higher consumer installment credit/income ratio and a quicker change in labor costs.
The index of coincident-to-lagging indicators is a measure of how the economy is performing versus its excesses. It held steady last month for the second month.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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