Global| Nov 03 2014U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Rebounds Unexpectedly; Prices Ease
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ISM Composite Index of Factory Sector Activity rebounded to 59.0 last month following an unrevised decline to 56.6 during September. The latest level matched its highest since March, 2011. Expectations in the Action Economic [...]
The ISM Composite Index of Factory Sector Activity rebounded to 59.0 last month following an unrevised decline to 56.6 during September. The latest level matched its highest since March, 2011. Expectations in the Action Economic Forecast Survey had been for a slip to 56.3.
A rebounding new orders index and a higher supplier deliveries index led the total higher, the latter indicating the slowest delivery speeds since February. The employment index made up a small piece of its September decline. During the last ten years there has been an 89% correlation between the index level and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls. The inventories and production indexes also recovered following earlier declines.
Pricing pressure eased as shown by the price index falling to its lowest level since December. A lessened 21% of firms reported higher prices and an increased 14% reported them lower.
The inventories index rebounded to nearly its recent high and order backlogs firmed to the middle of the recent range. The export orders index fell, however, to the lowest level since May of last year.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations number is in the AS1REPNA database.
Economic Policy, Economic Modeling and Unknown Unknowns from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| ISM Mfg | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 59.0 | 56.6 | 59.0 | 56.6 | 53.9 | 51.8 | 55.2 |
| New Orders | 65.8 | 60.0 | 66.7 | 61.3 | 57.2 | 53.1 | 56.4 |
| Production | 64.8 | 64.6 | 64.5 | 60.8 | 57.7 | 53.8 | 57.4 |
| Employment | 55.5 | 54.6 | 58.1 | 54.3 | 53.2 | 53.8 | 57.4 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 56.2 | 52.2 | 53.9 | 54.1 | 51.9 | 50.0 | 54.7 |
| Inventories | 52.5 | 51.5 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 49.4 | 48.2 | 50.1 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 53.5 | 59.5 | 58.0 | 55.5 | 53.8 | 53.2 | 65.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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