Global| Nov 05 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Jump to 5-Week High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 16,000 during the week ended October 31 to 276,000 (-3.1% y/y). The prior week's level of 260,000 was unrevised. The latest was the highest level of claims since the last week of [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 16,000 during the week ended October 31 to 276,000 (-3.1% y/y). The prior week's level of 260,000 was unrevised. The latest was the highest level of claims since the last week of September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 260,000 initial claims. The four week moving average increased slightly to 262,750 but remained near the 15-year low. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended October 24, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose w/w to 2.163 million (-8.6% y/y). The four-week moving average declined to 2.162 million, also near the 15-year low.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, equaling the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with South Dakota (0.24%), North Carolina (0.66%), Virginia (0.72%), Maine (0.77%), Tennessee (0.83%) and Vermont (0.93%) at the low end of the range. At the high end remained Oregon (1.60%), Massachusetts (1.66%), Connecticut (1.99%), Pennsylvania (2.04%), California (2.10%) and New Jersey (2.31%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/31/15 | 10/24/15 | 10/17/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 276 | 260 | 259 | -3.1 | 307 | 342 | 372 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,163 | 2,146 | -8.6 | 2,607 | 2,978 | 3,308 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (10/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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