Global| Sep 22 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Near 40-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 252,000 (-7.0% y/y) in the week ending September 17 from an unrevised 260,000 in the prior week. The figure was near the lowest level since October 1973. The four-week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 252,000 (-7.0% y/y) in the week ending September 17 from an unrevised 260,000 in the prior week. The figure was near the lowest level since October 1973. The four-week moving average fell to 258,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 262,000 claims in the latest week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for September nonfarm payrolls, and claims fell 6,750 (2.5%) from the August period. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for jobless benefits fell to 2.113 million (-5.8% y/y) in the week ended September 10. The four-week moving average fell to 2.140 million, near a four-decade low.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 1.5%, and returned to the record low.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to be quite disparate. The state data are not seasonally adjusted and are reported with a two-week lag. For the week ended September 3, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Nebraska (0.42%), North Carolina (0.60%), Utah (0.61%), Maine (0.76%) and South Carolina (0.84%). The highest rates were found in Illinois (1.67%), Massachusetts (1.83%), Pennsylvania (2.07%), Connecticut (2.24%), Alaska (2.54%) and New Jersey (2.63%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/17/16 | 09/10/16 | 09/3/16 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 252 | 260 | 259 | -7.0 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,113 | 2,149 | -5.8 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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