Global| Aug 17 2017U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance applications declined to 232,000 (-9.8% y/y) during the week ended August 12 from an unrevised 244,000 during the prior week. Expectations were for 240,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
Initial unemployment insurance applications declined to 232,000 (-9.8% y/y) during the week ended August 12 from an unrevised 244,000 during the prior week. Expectations were for 240,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average eased to 240,500 and remained near the 1973 low.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for August nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 2,000 (-0.9%) from the July survey period. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.953 million (-9.3% y/y) in the week ended August 5, following a decline to 1.956 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to a lessened 1.960 million.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment continue to vary widely across the country. For the week ended July 29, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.32%), Indiana (0.50%), Nebraska (0.54%), Utah (0.55%), North Carolina (0.57%) and Florida (0.66%). The highest rates were found in Rhode Island (1.99%), California (2.11%), Alaska (2.20%), Pennsylvania (2.24%), Connecticut (2.43%) and New Jersey (2.68%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
The unemployment insurance claims data begin January 2, 1971. Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/12/17 | 08/05/17 | 07/29/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 232 | 244 | 241 | -9.8 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,953 | 1,956 | -9.3 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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