Global| May 20 2010U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rise Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that initial claims for jobless insurance rose 25,000 to 471,000 following declines during the prior five weeks. The latest disappointed Consensus expectations for 440,000 claims. [...]
For last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that initial claims for jobless insurance rose 25,000 to 471,000 following declines during the prior five weeks. The latest disappointed Consensus expectations for 440,000 claims. Even the earlier week's level was revised up modestly. Still, claims remained near this cycle's lowest. Last week's figure was down from the recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased slightly to 453,500.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for May nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 7,500 (-1.6%) from the April survey period. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation (inverse) between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
A 40,000 decline in continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week reversed the prior week's increase. Claims were down by one-third from the June '09 peak. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims at 4.643M remained near the cycle low. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance rose w/w to 240,260. However, they were down by three-quarters from a peak of 597,688 reached in November.
The insured unemployment rate remained at 3.6% where it has been since mid-February. The rate reached a high of 4.9% during May of 2009. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 1 were in Alaska (6.4%), Puerto Rico (6.0), Oregon (5.6), Nevada (5.0), California (4.9), Pennsylvania (4.6), Wisconsin (4.6), Montana (4.5), Idaho (4.4), North Carolina (4.4), and Washington (4.4). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (1.7), Texas (2.2), Georgia (2.8), Maryland (2.9), Wyoming (3.0), Florida (3.1), Ohio (3.1), New York (3.3) and Maine (3.4). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
The impact of low-skilled immigration on the youth labor market from the Board of Governors can be found here here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/15/10 | 05/08/10 | 05/01/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 471 | 446 | 446 | -24.6% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,625 | 4,665 | -28.3 | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.9 (5/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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