Global| May 08 2008U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Dip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week's initial claims for unemployment insurance continued the recent up/down pattern, with an upward drift, of the last several periods. They fell by 18,000 to 365,000 after an upwardly revised 38,000 increase during the prior [...]
Last week's initial claims for unemployment insurance continued the recent up/down pattern, with an upward drift, of the last several periods. They fell by 18,000 to 365,000 after an upwardly revised 38,000 increase during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for claims to total 375,000 last week.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly week-to-week to 367,000 (17.0% y/y) after claims averaged 365,000 during April.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 10,000 after an upwardly revised 84,000 worker increase during the prior week. The latest level was near its highest since early 2004 and it provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Initial claims for the week ended April 26 increased the most in Massachusetts, New York, Kentucky, New Jersey and Michigan. The largest decreases occurred in Texas, Rhode Island, California, Pennsylvania and Connecticut.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 2.3% for the second week. The latest also was the highest since 2004.Mitigating the Impact of Foreclosures on Neighborhoods is yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Randall Kroszner and it is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/03/08 | 04/26/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 365 | 383 | 22.9% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,020 | 19.4% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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