Global| May 18 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Touch 1973 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance applications fell to 232,000 during the week ended May 13 from an unrevised 236,000 in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since July 1973. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial unemployment insurance applications fell to 232,000 during the week ended May 13 from an unrevised 236,000 in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims since July 1973. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had called for 240,000 claims. The four-week moving average declined to 241,000.
The latest claims figure covers the survey week for May nonfarm payrolls. Claims declined 11,000 (-4.5%) from the April period. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.898 million (-12.0% y/y) in the week ended May 6 from 1.920 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.946 million, the lowest level since November 1988.
The insured unemployment rate held at 1.4%, the record low. These data begin January 2, 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended April 29, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.36%), Nebraska (0.43%), North Carolina (0.50%), Florida (0.53%), Tennessee (0.61%) and Georgia (0.65%). The highest rates were found in Alaska (3.45%), New Jersey (2.31%), California (2.22%), Connecticut (2.15%), Illinois (1.90%) and Massachusetts (1.80%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/13/17 | 05/06/17 | 04/29/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 232 | 236 | 238 | -16.2 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,898 | 1,920 | -12.0 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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