Global| May 10 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Remain at 50-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady w/w at 211,000 (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending May 5. Claims were expected to rise to 219,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average declined to 216,000, [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady w/w at 211,000 (-11.6% y/y) in the week ending May 5. Claims were expected to rise to 219,000 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average declined to 216,000, the lowest four-week average of claims since December 1969. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending April 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.790 million (-7.1% y/y) from a revised 1.760 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.813 million from 1.815 million. Both continuing claims and their four-week average are at their lowest level since December 1973
The insured rate of unemployment edged up to 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ending April 21, the lowest rates of insured unemployed were Nebraska (0.42%), North Carolina (0.45%), Florida (0.45%), South Dakota (0.48%), Indiana (0.53%) and Tennessee (0.56%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.76%), Pennsylvania (1.77%), California (2.02%), New Jersey (2.22%), Connecticut (2.32%), and Alaska (3.01%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/05/18 | 04/28/18 | 04/21/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 211 | 211 | 209 | -11.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,790 | 1,760 | -7.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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