Global| Mar 22 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial applications for jobless insurance rose to 229,000 during the week ended March 17 from an unrevised 226,000 in the prior week. Claims remain near the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations had been for 225,000 claims [...]
Initial applications for jobless insurance rose to 229,000 during the week ended March 17 from an unrevised 226,000 in the prior week. Claims remain near the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations had been for 225,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average edged up to 225,750.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for March nonfarm payrolls. There was a 9,000 increase (4.1%) versus the February period. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls
In the week ended March 10, continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined 3.0% to 1.828 million (-7.8% y/y). The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.881 million, the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended March 3, the lowest rates of unemployment were found in Florida (0.49%), North Carolina (0.52%), Georgia (0.66%), Virginia (0.70%), Tennessee (0.71%) and Indiana (0.76%. The highest rates were in Massachusetts (2.49%), Rhode Island (2.56%), Montana (2.71%), New Jersey (2.81%), Connecticut (2.82%) and Alaska (3.75%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/17/18 | 03/10/18 | 03/03/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 229 | 226 | 230 | -11.7 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,828 | 1,885 | -7.8 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.3 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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