Global| Feb 02 2012U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The downtrend in jobless insurance claims remains intact. That was indicated by another decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Last week they fell to 367,000 from 379,000 (revised from 377,000). Claims averaged 376,000 [...]
The downtrend in jobless insurance claims remains intact. That was indicated by another decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance. Last week they fell to 367,000 from 379,000 (revised from 377,000). Claims averaged 376,000 (-12.6% y/y) during the last four weeks, down from 430,000 during January, 2010 and were the lowest since June, 2008. Expectations had been for 370,000 claims in the Action Economics survey.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 3.437M during the week of January 21. Claims also were their lowest since 2008. The insured rate of unemployment rate slipped to 2.7%, the recovery low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the January 14th week, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 7.670 mil. (-17.5% y/y).
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied as of January 14 with Virginia (1.7%), Texas (1.8%), Florida (1.9%), Arizona (2.3%), Tennessee (2.5%), Indiana (2.7% and Ohio (2.8%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in North Carolina (3.4%), New York (3.6%), Connecticut (3.7%), California (4.0%), Michigan (4.0%), New Jersey (4.3%), and Pennsylvania (5.0%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance(000s) | 01/28/12 | 01/21/12 | 01/14/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 367 | 379 | 355 | -13.4 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,437 | 3,567 | -13.5 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 (1/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 7.670M | -17.5 | 2.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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