Global| Nov 08 2007U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Drop
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell further last week to 317,000 from 330,000 during the week prior. It was third consecutive weekly decline and to the lowest level since early last month. The prior week's level was revised [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell further last week to 317,000 from 330,000 during the week prior. It was third consecutive weekly decline and to the lowest level since early last month. The prior week's level was revised up.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose slightly again to 329,750 (4.8% y/y), the highest level since April.There were no special factors indicated as having influenced the figures beyond a slight increase due to wildfires in California.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell a slight 4,000 after the 60,000 spike upward during the prior week. It was revised down slightly.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable at 1.9% with a downwardly level during the week prior.
By state and versus one year ago, large declines in initial claims were logged in Indiana, Kentucky, New York, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and South Carolina. Large y/y increases were in Pennsylvania, Ohio, California, Maryland, Texas, Florida and Arizona.
This morning's JEC testimony by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, The Economic Outlook, is available here.
Yesterday's presentation, The End of History, by Fed GovernorKevin Warsh to the New York Association for Business Economics can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/03/07 | 10/27/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 317 | 330 | 1.6% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,579 | 6.0% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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