Global| Oct 25 2007U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Remained High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained high at 331,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level of 339,000 during the prior week. The decline in claims last week fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline of [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance remained high at 331,000 last week versus an upwardly revised level of 339,000 during the prior week.
The decline in claims last week fell short of Consensus expectations for a decline of 17,000 claims. The four week moving average of initial claims rose sharply to 324,750 (+5.0% y/y).
This month initial claims have averaged 326,000 per week, up 4.2% against an average of 313,000 during September.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose by 0.3% for second consecutive week. The increase during the prior week was downwardly revised.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.9%, off the peaks in August of 2.0% which were reached for only two weeks during month-end.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/20/07 | 10/13/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 331 | 339 | 6.8% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,530 | 3.9% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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