Global| Aug 14 2015U.S. Industrial Production Strengthens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall industrial output increased 0.6% during July (1.3% y/y) following a revised 0.1% uptick, last month reported as 0.3%. Earlier figures were revised last month to show slower improvement in output. A 0.3% rise in production had [...]
Overall industrial output increased 0.6% during July (1.3% y/y) following a revised 0.1% uptick, last month reported as 0.3%. Earlier figures were revised last month to show slower improvement in output. A 0.3% rise in production had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Manufacturing sector production increased 0.8% (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.3% decline. Mining output improved 0.2% (-2.1% y/y), the third increase since December. Utility output declined 1.0% (4.7% y/y) after a 2.3% rise.
Within the factory sector, motor vehicle & parts production rebounded 10.6% (9.0% y/y) after a 4.4% decline. Output of computers, video & audio gear jumped 1.8% (9.7% y/y), about as it did in June. Appliance, furniture & carpeting output increased 1.0% (2.0% y/y), roughly equaling the June gain. Business equipment production remained unchanged (1.0% y/y) following a 0.2% decline. In the nondurables consumer goods sector, clothing output jumped 1.0% (-2.1% y/y) following weakened estimates of decline during the prior five months. Chemical product manufacturing improved 0.3% (2.5% y/y) after two months of minimal increase.
The special aggregate series indicated that production in high technology industries increased 1.2% (+0.5% y/y), up just 0.5% y/y. It was only the second rise since November. Computers & office equipment production rose 2.0% (14.3% y/y) and communications equipment production improved 0.7%, but was down 0.8% y/y. Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos improved 0.1% (0.9% y/y) and has been little-changed this year.
The capacity utilization rate rose to 78.0% but remained below the recovery high of 79.0% reached in November. Mining sector utilization moved lower m/m to 84.4% and remained down from its 91.6% high reached last June. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate rebounded m/m to 76.2%, its highest level this year.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.8 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Consumer Goods | 1.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | -1.3 |
| Business Equipment | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4.8 | -0.4 | 9.9 |
| Construction Supplies | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 4.3 |
| Materials | 0.6 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 1.9 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Utilities | -1.0 | 2.3 | -0.6 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 2.5 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.0 | 77.7 | 77.7 | 78.3 | 78.1 | 76.7 | 76.7 |
| Manufacturing | 76.2 | 75.7 | 76.0 | 75.9 | 75.3 | 74.0 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
