Global| Feb 18 2015U.S. Industrial Production Recovers Modestly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial production increased 0.2% during January (4.8% y/y) following a 0.3% December decline, earlier reported as -0.1%. The latest gain was helped by a 2.2% rise (-6.6%) in utility output. Manufacturing sector production improved [...]
Industrial production increased 0.2% during January (4.8% y/y) following a 0.3% December decline, earlier reported as -0.1%. The latest gain was helped by a 2.2% rise (-6.6%) in utility output. Manufacturing sector production improved 0.1% (5.5% y/y) following no change in December, revised from 0.3%. A 0.3% rise in total output was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Consumer goods production improved 0.2% last month (2.9% y/y) as nondurable goods output was unchanged (4.6% y/y) and durable goods production gained 0.4% (7.3% y/y). Business equipment production improved 0.8% (7.3% y/y). A 1.0% rise (4.2% y/y) in information processing equipment accompanied a 0.1% uptick (9.1% y/y) in transit equipment. Motor vehicle & parts production fell 0.5% (+13.3% y/y) and appliance & furniture output declined 1.9% (+7.9% y/y). Apparel production jumped 1.0% (5.7% y/y) following a 3.1% surge. Chemical output repeated a 0.2% rise (5.5% y/y). Production of construction supplies declined 0.3% (+6.1 y/y) following a 1.0% jump.
Within the special aggregate series, high technology industries production jumped 1.2% (7.0% y/y). It was fueled by a 1.6% recovery (-5.9% y/y) in computers & office equipment output after a 3.5% decline. Factory sector production excluding the high-tech sector improved 0.1% (5.6% y/y) following a 0.1% gain. Manufacturing production excluding both high-tech and autos ticked 0.1% higher (5.0% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
The capacity utilization rate held steady at 79.4% and remained below the recovery high of 79.8% reached in November. In the factory sector, the capacity utilization rate was fairly stable near the expansion high at 78.1%. Total industry capacity rose an improved 3.1% y/y in January while factory sector capacity increased 2.2% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.2 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 |
| Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 4.1 |
| Consumer Goods | 0.2 | -0.8 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Business Equipment | 0.8 | -1.1 | 1.4 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 7.5 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Materials | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Utilities | 2.2 | -6.9 | 3.6 | -6.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | -2.1 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 79.4 | 79.4 | 79.8 | 78.1 | 79.2 | 78.0 | 77.3 |
| Manufacturing | 78.1 | 78.0 | 78.2 | 75.5 | 77.2 | 76.1 | 75.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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