Global| Apr 15 2016U.S. Industrial Production Declines Are Broad-Based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Industrial output declined 0.6% during March after a 0.6% February drop, revised from -0.5%. No change in output had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Annual data revisions, released earlier this month, lowered [...]
Industrial output declined 0.6% during March after a 0.6% February drop, revised from -0.5%. No change in output had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Annual data revisions, released earlier this month, lowered production growth during 2015 and 2014.
The decline in oil prices pulled down output in the mining sector by 2.9% last month (-13.0% y/y). It has fallen 16.1% since the peak in December 2014. Warm weather reduced utility output 1.2%, and it is down 7.7% y/y.
Factory sector production declined 0.3% last month (+0.4% y/y) following downwardly revised readings of -0.1% and +0.4% in the prior two months. Consumer goods production eased 0.4% (+0.1% y/y) as motor vehicle output declined 1.6% (+5.0% y/y). Electrical equipment production declined 1.7% (+0.8% y/y) and machinery output was off 0.4% (-4.7% y/y). Working the other way, computer & electronic product production rose 0.9% (2.9% y/y).
In the nondurable goods sector, petroleum & coal production increased 1.0% (4.9% y/y) and chemical output rose 0.3% (1.5% y/y). Apparel output declined 0.6% (-5.8% y/y) and paper product production fell 0.6% (-2.9% y/y) as well. In the utilities sector, natural gas output declined 4.6% (-12.1% y/y), but electric power generation eased a lesser 0.8% (-7.2% y/y).
In the subcategory groupings, output of high technology products rose 0.5% (2.1% y/y) as computer & office equipment production gained 2.4% (-3.9% y/y). Communications equipment eased 0.1% (+1.8% y/y), but semiconductor output rose 0.4% (3.5% y/y). Overall factory sector production, excluding the high-tech & motor vehicle sectors, fell 0.2% (-0.1% y/y) for a second month.
Capacity utilization declined to 74.8% last month from 75.3%, revised from 76.7%. That was down from 78.9% in November 2014. Factory sector utilization fell to 75.1%, down from the 2014 high of 76.3%. Industry capacity rose 1.2% y/y while factory sector capacity improved 0.8% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.5 | -2.0 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| Manufacturing | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.4 | -0.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| Business Equipment | -0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | -1.7 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.2 |
| Construction Supplies | -1.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 3.0 |
| Materials | -0.8 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -3.6 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Utilities | -1.2 | -3.6 | 3.3 | -7.7 | -0.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Mining | -2.9 | -1.0 | -1.6 | -13.0 | -1.8 | 11.0 | 6.5 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 74.8 | 75.3 | 75.8 | 77.3 | 76.7 | 78.2 | 76.9 |
| Manufacturing | 75.1 | 75.4 | 75.5 | 75.5 | 75.5 | 75.4 | 74.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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