Global| Nov 14 2008U.S. Import Prices Fell Again; Oil & Nonoil Prices Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total U.S. import prices fell another 4.7% last month following the little-revised 3.3% September drop. Consensus expectations had been for a 4.4% drop during October. Petroleum prices cratered another 16.7% and this month imported [...]
Total U.S. import prices fell another 4.7% last month following the little-revised 3.3% September drop. Consensus expectations had been for a 4.4% drop during October.
Petroleum prices cratered another 16.7% and this month imported crude petroleum prices are down another 19% m/m.
During October import prices less petroleum fell 0.9%, the same as during September. During the last three months prices fell at an 8.4% annual rate versus the 12 to 13% rates of positive growth this past spring. Growth in import prices will slow further given the recent rise in the foreign exchange value of the dollar. During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a reduced 47% against a broader basket of currencies.
Capital goods import prices fell 0.2% after two months of no change. On a three-month basis prices fell at a 0.9% annual rate after a 5% to 6% rate of increase earlier this year. Less the lower prices of computers, capital goods prices ticked 0.1% lower but three month growth was just 1.1% after 9% growth earlier this year. Prices of computers, peripherals & accessories were down at a 6.8% rate during the last three months.
Finally, prices for nonauto consumer goods ticked up 0.1% and the 0.4% rate of increase during the last three months is down from the 5.9% peak earlier this year. Durable goods prices overall rose at a 1.2% rate during the last three months versus a 6.2% rate of increase earlier this year.
Total export prices fell another 1.9% due to an 8.7% (+5.7% y/y) decline in agricultural prices which followed a 0.1% September uptick. Nonagricultural export prices slumped another 1.2% (+4.0% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | October | September | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | -4.7 | -3.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 7.5 |
| Petroleum | -16.7 | -10.2 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 20.6 | 37.6 |
| Non-petroleum | -0.9 | -0.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Export- All Commodities | -1.9 | -0.8 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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