Global| Dec 11 2014U.S. Import Price Decline Picks Up Speed
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices declined 1.5% (-2.3% y/y) during November after a 1.2% October drop, earlier reported as -1.3%. It was the largest of five straight months of decline and matched expectations for a 1.5% shortfall in the Action Economics [...]
Import prices declined 1.5% (-2.3% y/y) during November after a 1.2% October drop, earlier reported as -1.3%. It was the largest of five straight months of decline and matched expectations for a 1.5% shortfall in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 6.9% fall (-12.3% y/y) in petroleum prices led the decline in import costs. That was accompanied by a 0.3 decline (+0.1% y/y) in nonoil prices. It was the largest decline in six months.
Last month's drop in nonoil import prices reflected a 1.1% shortfall (-0.4% y/y) in nonoil industrial supplies prices, also the largest decline in the last six months. Motor vehicle & parts prices slipped 0.1% (-1.0% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods prices similarly were off 0.1% (+0.6%), down for the second straight month. Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.4% y/y) for the fourth straight month. Prices for foods, feeds & beverages fell 0.4% (+3.5% y/y), down for the first time since June.
Export prices fell 1.0% (-0.8% y/y), off for a fourth straight month. A 0.4% decline had been expected. A 3.1% shortfall (-5.4% y/y) in industrial materials prices reflected an 8.9% drop (-15.4% y/y) in petroleum costs. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) but motor vehicle & parts prices were unchanged (0.5% y/y). Capital goods prices slipped 0.1% (+0.4% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Agricultural export prices rose 0.5% but were down 3.8% y/y. Nonagricultural export prices fell 1.2% (-1.7% y/y), off for the fourth straight month.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Implications of Recent U.S. Energy Trends for Trade Forecasts from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City can be found here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -1.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 | -2.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 10.9 |
| Petroleum | -6.9 | -6.4 | -2.2 | -12.3 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 36.5 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -1.0 | -0.9 | -0.5 | -1.9 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 8.1 |
| Agricultural | 0.5 | -2.1 | -1.6 | -3.8 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 22.3 |
| Nonagricultural | -1.2 | -0.8 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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