Global| May 13 2014U.S. Import Price Decline Led by Lower Oil Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices declined 0.4% during April and reversed a revised 0.4% March rise, last month reported as 0.6%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics survey. A 0.7% drop (+0.1% y/y) in petroleum prices led the [...]
Import prices declined 0.4% during April and reversed a revised 0.4% March rise, last month reported as 0.6%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics survey. A 0.7% drop (+0.1% y/y) in petroleum prices led the decline in overall import costs. That was accompanied by a 0.2% dip (-0.3% y/y) in nonoil prices which had been rising steadily since October.
Last month's decline in nonpetroleum import prices overall reflected a 1.6% drop (-1.6% y/y) in nonoil industrial materials costs as well as a 0.7% drop (+4.2% y/y in foods, feeds & beverages prices. Elsewhere, prices firmed. Automotive prices gained 0.2% (-1.0% y/y) as did nonauto consumer goods prices (0.2% y/y). Capital goods prices inched 0.1% higher (-0.4% y/y).
U.S. export prices declined 1.0% last month (+0.1 y/y) and reversed the prior month's increase. A 0.3% price increase had been expected. A 1.4% rise (2.1% y/y) in agricultural export costs was offset by a 1.2% decline (-0.1% y/y) in nonagricultural prices.
Export prices excluding petroleum and foods ticked 0.1% higher (-0.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices increased 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) and reversed March's recovery. Motor vehicles & parts prices also rose 0.3% (0.4% y/y) and capital goods prices gained 0.1% (0.7% y/y), the weakest gain in three months.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.4 | 0.4 | 1.1 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.3 | 10.9 |
| Petroleum | -0.7 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 0.1 | -2.6 | -0.3 | 36.5 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -1.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.4 | 8.1 |
| Agricultural | 1.4 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 22.3 |
| Nonagricultural | -1.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 6.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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