Global| Feb 16 2011U.S. Housing Starts Snap Back
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Despite severe winter storms last month, home building activity improved. Total housing starts rose 14.6% in January to 596,000, the highest level since September. The increase followed a 5.1% December decline that was deeper than the [...]
Despite severe winter storms last month, home building activity improved. Total housing starts rose 14.6% in January to 596,000, the highest level since September. The increase followed a 5.1% December decline that was deeper than the 4.3% shortfall reported initially. The latest figure greatly exceeded Consensus expectations for 540,000 starts.
The January increase in starts reflected a 77.7% m/m jump in multi-family to 183,000, the highest level since February 2009. Starts of 2-4 unit structures rebounded 50% m/m (71.4% y/y) and starts of larger units surged 80% (81.9% y/y). Starts of single-family homes fell by 1.0% from December to 413,000. It was the third decline in the last four months and to the lowest level since May 2009. Starts in the Northeast jumped 41.8% (11.4% y/y) while starts surged 36.4% (-1.1% y/y) in the Midwest despite the weather. Starts in the South increased 15.8% (-5.8% y/y) but starts out West pulled back 9.7% (-3.2% y/y) after a one-third jump during December.
Working the other way, building permits declined 10.4% m/m (-10.7% y/y) and gave back virtually all of the December increase. Permits for single-family units fell 4.8% and were down 17.3% from last January. Multi-family permits fell by roughly one-quarter (+17.5% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s,SAAR) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 596 | 520 | 548 | -2.6% | 585 | 554 | 900 |
| Single-Family | 413 | 417 | 455 | -19.2 | 471 | 442 | 616 |
| Multi-Family | 183 | 103 | 93 | 81.2 | 115 | 112 | 284 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 78 | 55 | 77 | 11.4 | 72 | 61 | 120 |
| Midwest | 90 | 66 | 109 | -1.1 | 98 | 95 | 134 |
| South | 307 | 265 | 265 | -5.8 | 296 | 281 | 451 |
| West | 121 | 134 | 97 | -3.2 | 121 | 117 | 195 |
| Building Permits | 562 | 627 | 544 | -10.7 | 595 | 583 | 896 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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