Global| Oct 20 2020U.S. Housing Starts Rebound in September
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Single-family home building increases to highest level since June 2007. • Permits to build single-family units jump, while multi-family permits drop. Housing starts rose 1.9% (11.1% y/y) in September to 1.415 million units (SAAR) [...]
• Single-family home building increases to highest level since June 2007.
• Permits to build single-family units jump, while multi-family permits drop.
Housing starts rose 1.9% (11.1% y/y) in September to 1.415 million units (SAAR) from 1.388 million in August, revised from 1.416 million. The increase left starts 12.5% below their January peak of 1.617 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.450 million starts in September.
Starts of single-family homes rose 8.5% last month (22.3% y/y) to 1.108 million from an unrevised 1.021 million in August and 992,000 in July, revised from 981,000. The latest level was roughly two-thirds above the April low. Offsetting the increase was a 16.3% decline (-16.6% y/y) in multi-family starts to 307,000 units from 367,000 in August, revised from 395,000. It was the lowest level of multi-family start in five months and down 51.1% from the peak this past January.
Building permits rose 5.2% (8.1% y/y) to 1.553 million units from 1.476 million in August, revised from 1.470 million. It was the highest level of permits since March 2007. Permits to build single-family homes rose 7.8% (24.3% y/y) to 1.119 million, the fifth consecutive month of strong increase. Permits to build multi-family homes eased 0.9% (-19.2% y/y) to 434,000 after falling 13.4% in August.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast surged by two-thirds (26.1% y/y) to 145,000, the highest level since January. In the South, starts rose 6.2% (8.9% y/y) to 755,000 following August's 15.3% decline. In the West, starts improved 1.4% (13.6% y/y) to 350,000, the highest level since February. To the downside were housing starts in the Midwest which fell 32.7% (+4.4% y/y) to 165,000. It was the lowest level in four months.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,415 | 1,388 | 1,487 | 11.1 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
| Single-Family | 1,108 | 1,021 | 992 | 22.3 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
| Multi-Family | 307 | 367 | 495 | -16.6 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 145 | 87 | 131 | 26.1 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
| Midwest | 165 | 245 | 209 | 4.4 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
| South | 755 | 711 | 839 | 8.9 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
| West | 350 | 345 | 308 | 13.6 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
| Building Permits | 1,553 | 1,476 | 1,483 | 8.1 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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