Global| Jun 16 2017U.S. Housing Starts Decline to Eight-Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home building continued to exhibit weakness last month. Total housing starts fell 5.5% (-2.6% y/y) during May to 1.092 million (AR) from 1.156 million in April, revised from 1.172 million. It was the lowest level of starts since [...]
New home building continued to exhibit weakness last month. Total housing starts fell 5.5% (-2.6% y/y) during May to 1.092 million (AR) from 1.156 million in April, revised from 1.172 million. It was the lowest level of starts since September. Starts of 1.218 million had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey.
Starts of single-family homes fell 3.9% (+9.4% y/y) to 794,000, also the lowest level since September. Starts of multi-family units were off 9.7% (-26.7% y/y) to 298,000 (-26.7% y/y).
By region, starts in the Midwest declined 9.2% to 168,000 (-8.6% y/y), an eight-month low. In the South, starts fell 8.8% (-9.8% y/y) to 526,000, the fourth consecutive month of decline. Starts in the Northeast remained steady at 87,000 (+6.7% y/y), though that remained down by roughly two-thirds from the June 2015 high of 218,000. In the West, starts improved 1.3% (14.5% y/y) to 311,000, but have moved erratically sideways since the middle of last year.
Building permits fell 4.9% (+2.4% y/y) to 1.168 million from 1.228 million in March. It was the lowest level of permits since April of last year. Permits to build single-family homes eased 1.9% (+10.9% y/y) to 779,000 and multi-family permits declined 10.4% (-12.8% y/y) to 389,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,092 | 1,156 | 1,189 | -2.6 | 1,17 | 1,107 | 1,001 |
| Single-Family | 794 | 826 | 824 | 9.4 | 784 | 712 | 647 |
| Multi-Family | 298 | 330 | 365 | -26.7 | 393 | 395 | 355 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 87 | 87 | 116 | 6.7 | 116 | 136 | 109 |
| Midwest | 168 | 185 | 139 | -8.6 | 185 | 150 | 159 |
| South | 526 | 577 | 633 | -9.8 | 584 | 556 | 497 |
| West | 311 | 307 | 301 | 14.5 | 292 | 265 | 236 |
| Building Permits | 1,168 | 1,228 | 1,260 | 2.4 | 1,207 | 1,178 | 1,053 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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