Global| Jun 18 2012U.S. Home Builders Index Reaches Highest Since 2007
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo reported that its Composite Housing Market Index rose this month to 29 from a revised 28 in May, initially reported as 29. The latest figure was the highest since 2007. The index [...]
The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo reported that its
Composite Housing Market Index rose this month to 29 from a revised 28 in
May, initially reported as 29. The latest figure was the highest since
2007. The index of single-family home sales rose two points to 32, also
the highest since 2007 but still down from levels near 70 in 2004. The
index of sales during the next six months held constant at 34. Finally,
the home builders' index of traffic of prospective buyers remained at its
high of 23. By region, the Midwest index returned to its high of 31 while
the index for the West recovered slightly following three months of
decline. The index for the South retraced half of its May gain and the
Northeast's index also fell slightly.
The index of prospective new home buyer traffic held at its recent high of 23. Each of these NAHB figures is seasonally adjusted. The Home Builders' Housing Opportunity Index, which is the share of homes sold that could be considered affordable to a family earning the median income, improved slightly in Q1'12 to a record 77.5%, buoyed by lower home prices, lower interest rates and higher income. (There is a break in the series from 2002 to 2003.)
The Home Builders index is compiled from survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results, along with other housing and remodeling indexes from NAHB Economics, are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
Economic Rebounds in U.S. and Euro Zone: Deceivingly Similar, Strikingly Different from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| National Association of Home Builders | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'11 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 29 | 28 | 24 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Single-Family Sales | 32 | 30 | 25 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 34 | 34 | 31 | 15 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 23 | 23 | 18 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| Northeast | 29 | 31 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
| Midwest | 31 | 26 | 22 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| South | 26 | 28 | 23 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| West | 33 | 29 | 31 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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