Global| Aug 15 2013U.S. Home Builders Index Moves To Eight-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose another 3 points to 59 this month after a 5 point advance in July. The latest rise was to the highest level since November 2005 and [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo rose another 3 points to 59 this month after a 5 point advance in July. The latest rise was to the highest level since November 2005 and outpaced expectations for an unchanged 57. The index of single-family home sales increased to 62, the highest since December 2005. The index of sales during the next six months up-ticked to 68. Realtors continued to realize traffic of prospective buyers at its highest level since late 2005.
Activity was mixed m/m across the country in August. The index for the Midwest rose to 64 from 62 and the figure for the South gained to 56 from 54. The figure for the Northeast was unchanged while in the West the series level slipped to 59 from 61. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 59 | 56 | 51 | 37 | 34 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales | 62 | 60 | 55 | 38 | 36 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 68 | 67 | 60 | 43 | 41 | 22 | 23 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 45 | 45 | 40 | 30 | 27 | 13 | 12 |
| Northeast | 40 | 40 | 38 | 23 | 29 | 17 | 20 |
| Midwest | 64 | 62 | 55 | 41 | 36 | 14 | 14 |
| South | 56 | 54 | 52 | 35 | 34 | 18 | 17 |
| West | 59 | 61 | 50 | 40 | 38 | 15 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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