Global| Mar 10 2016U.S. Government's Deficit-Spending Is Fairly Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $192.6 billion budget deficit during February versus a $192.4 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $205.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported a $192.6 billion budget deficit during February versus a $192.4 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $205.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first five months of FY 2016, the budget deficit totaled $353.0 billion versus a $386.6 billion deficit in the first five months of FY 2015.
Overall revenues increased 5.3% versus the first five months of FY'16. Individual income taxes grew 7.6% y/y and social insurance contributions advanced 4.2% y/y. Weaker business profitability lowered corporate receipts by 12.8% y/y while excise taxes eased 0.6%.
Government spending increased 1.9% y/y so far in FY'16. National defense spending declined 1.9% y/y and income security payments fell 2.7% y/y with the lower unemployment rate. Medicare payments were off 4.3% y/y. Outlays on health programs advanced 6.4% y/y with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. but veterans benefits & services payments declined 2.4% y/y. Social Security payments grew 3.9% and spending on education, training employment & social services programs improved 7.6% y/y. Interest payments grew 12.4% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | February 2016 | FY'15 | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | -$192.6 bil. | -$438.9 bil. | -$483.4 bil. | -$680.2 bil. | -$1,089.2 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 2.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 5.3% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 11 | -12.8 | 7.2 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 33 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -0.6 | 5.3 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal YTD, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 1.9 | 5.2 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 |
| National Defense | 16 | -1.9 | -2.3 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 |
| Health | 13 | 6.4 | 17.8 | 14.3 | 3.3 | -7.0 |
| Medicare | 15 | -4.3 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 |
| Income Security | 14 | -2.7 | -0.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | -2.4 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 7.6 | 34.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 |
| Interest | 6 | 12.4 | -1.8 | 2.8 | 0.4 | -3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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