Global| Sep 12 2019U.S. Government Budget Deficit Tops $1 Trillion
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $1.067 trillion budget deficit during the first 11 months of FY'19. It was the first time in seven years that the deficit was that deep, and compared to an $898.1 [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $1.067 trillion budget deficit during the first 11 months of FY'19. It was the first time in seven years that the deficit was that deep, and compared to an $898.1 billion shortfall during the first 11 months of FY'18. The deficit amounted to roughly 5.0% of GDP compared to 3.9% last year. During August alone, the federal government deficit was $200.3 billion compared to a $214.1 billion shortfall posted one year earlier. A $161.0 billion August deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Growth in tax receipts accelerated. Net revenues rose 3.4% y/y so far this fiscal year compared to a 0.6% y/y gain during in first eleven months of FY'18. Growth in personal income tax receipts slowed to 0.9% y/y so far in FY'19, compared to a 7.0% y/y rise in the first eleven months of FY'18. Growth from other sources picked up the slack. Corporate tax receipts increased 4.5% y/y so far this year after a 30.4% 11-month drop y/y last year. Social insurance receipts rose 6.4% y/y following a 0.5% y/y gain eleven months into FY'18. Excise taxes rose by 10.2% y/y after last year's 8.7% 11-month rise.
Spending growth remained under control compared to last year. Government outlays increased 7.5% y/y so far in FY'19 compared to a 6.7% 11-month rise last year. National defense spending strengthened 8.8% y/y following a 1.6% y/y rise in the first eleven months last year. Medicare outlays rose by 11.1% y/y following an 8.3% 11-month y/y increase last year. Growth in income security payments increased 4.1% y/y so far in FY'19 after a 1.9% gain in the first 11 months of FY'18. Offsetting these accelerations, Social Security payments gained 2.9% y/y after rising 7.4% y/y in the first 11 months of FY'18. Spending growth on health programs nearly halved to 5.5% y/y versus the first 11 months of last fiscal year. Lower interest rates helped growth in interest payments to slow to 14.2% y/y from 21.0% last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | August | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-200.3 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | $-1,067.2 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2019, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 3.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 0.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 4.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 6.4 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 10.2 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2019, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 5.5 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 11.1 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 4.1 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 46.6 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 14.2 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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