Global| Sep 11 2020U.S. Government Budget Deficit Expands Through August
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Monthly budget gap increases deficit to $3.007 trillion so far in FY'20. • Receipts decline moderately while outlays surge. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the [...]
• Monthly budget gap increases deficit to $3.007 trillion so far in FY'20.
• Receipts decline moderately while outlays surge.
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that since the start of the fiscal year, which began in October, the cumulative budget deficit increased to $3.007 trillion versus $1.067 trillion one year ago. During August alone, the federal government ran a $200.1 billion budget deficit, compared to a $200.3 billion deficit twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey anticipated a $385.0 billion deficit.
So far this fiscal year, the deficit has surpassed the full fiscal year deficit record of $984.2 billion set in 2019. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is roughly 15% of GDP.
On a FY basis, federal government outlays have jumped 45.7% so far this year. The increase in outlays was driven by a 142.6% surge in income security payments that reflected an unemployment rate which jumped to an average 7.3% so far this fiscal year from 3.8% during the first 11 months of FY'19. Defense outlays grew a lessened 4.5% y/y and health care outlays rose an accelerated 28.8% y/y in FY'20. Medicare payment growth eased to 13.8% y/y and social security payments grew a steady 5.0% y/y. Interest payments declined.
Overall revenues have fallen 1.3% so far this fiscal year. The recession lowered individual income tax receipts by 5.7% y/y. Corporate tax receipts fell slightly less. Growth in social insurance tax payments was stable at 4.9% y/y and the reduction in global economic trade lowered customs duties by 2.3% so far in FY'20.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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