Global| Jan 30 2014U.S. GDP Growth Moderates in Q4 and in 2013
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Real GDP growth for Q4'13 eased to 3.2% (2.7% y/y) from 4.1% during the third quarter. The gain roughly matched consensus expectations for a 3.3% rise in the Action Economics survey. For all of last year growth also moderated to 1.9%, [...]
Real GDP growth for Q4'13 eased to 3.2% (2.7% y/y) from 4.1% during the third quarter. The gain roughly matched consensus expectations for a 3.3% rise in the Action Economics survey. For all of last year growth also moderated to 1.9%, down nearly a full percentage point from 2012
Domestic final sales rose at a slower 1.4% rate last quarter. It similarly eased y/y to 1.6% and for the full year to 1.5%. Growth in personal consumption expenditures improved to 3.3% (2.3% y/y). Showing declines were residential investment and government spending.
Price inflation also moderated in Q4 as the chain-type GDP price index rose at a 1.3% rate (1.3% y/y) and 1.4% for the full year, down from 1.7% in 2012.
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
| Chained 2009 $, %, AR | Q4'13 (Advance) | Q3'13 | Q2'13 | Q4 Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Inventory Effect | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| Final Sales | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 |
| Foreign Trade Effect | 1.3 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Domestic Final Sales | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Demand Components | |||||||
| Personal Consumption | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Business Fixed Investment | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 7.6 |
| Residential Investment | -9.8 | 10.3 | 14.2 | 6.3 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 0.5 |
| Government Spending | -4.9 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -2.3 | -2.2 | -1.0 | -3.2 |
| Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||
| GDP | 1.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Personal Consumption | 0.7 | 1.9 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Less Food/Energy | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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