Global| Dec 05 2019U.S. Factory Sector Orders Increase; Inventory Growth Decelerates
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October following a 0.8% September decline, revised from 0.6%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (-0.9% y/y), [...]
Factory orders improved 0.3% (-1.2% y/y) during October following a 0.8% September decline, revised from 0.6%. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for durable goods rose 0.5% (-0.9% y/y), revised from a 0.6% gain in the advance report. Orders for transportation equipment improved 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) and computers & electronic products orders increased 0.6% (-1.4% y/y). Machinery orders rose 1.2% (-2.1% y/y). Excluding transportation, new orders rose 0.2% (-1.2% y/y).
Shipments of nondurable goods, which equal orders, held steady (-1.6% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five months. Textile product shipments declined 0.9% (-5.5% y/y) but apparel shipments rose 1.1% (-2.9% y/y). Shipments from petroleum refineries surged 1.0% but remained down 11.9% y/y. Basic chemical shipments advanced 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Shipments of food products eased 0.2% (+1.3% y/y). Durable goods shipments were little changed (-1.5% y/y). Machinery shipments grew 1.0% but were fairly steady y/y. Primary metals shipments fell 0.9% (-7.2% y/y) and fabricated metals shipments improved 0.2% (2.4% y/y). Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 0.5% (1.2% y/y) after two months of decline. Electrical equipment & appliance shipments fell 2.0% (-0.1% y/y), but furniture shipments jumped 1.2% (4.6% y/y). Transportation sector shipments eased 0.4% (-4.9% y/y), off for the fourth straight month.
Unfilled orders in the factory sector improved 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) as transportation equipment backlogs also rose 0.1% (-2.4% y/y). Civilian aircraft backlogs fell 0.3% (-3.9% y/y) while unfilled orders of motor vehicles declined 1.3% (-4.7% y/y) and have been declining since February. Excluding transportation, backlogs held steady both m/m and y/y. Electrical equipment backlogs rose 0.6% (2.8% y/y) while computer backlogs were flat (1.8% y/y). Unfilled orders for machinery were unchanged (-3.9% y/y).
Inventories of manufactured products rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y). A 0.2% increase had been expected. Transportation sector inventories jumped 1.3% (12.5% y/y). Auto inventories fell 1.5% (+21.4% y/y) but civilian aircraft inventories rose 2.0% (17.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories fell 0.2% and were unchanged y/y. Machinery inventories eased 0.1% (+3.2% y/y) and computer inventories fell 0.4% (+0.6% y/y). Inventories of nondurable products eased 0.3% (-1.4% y/y) as food product inventories fell 0.8% (+0.6% y/y). Basic chemical inventories also eased 0.2% (+0.4 y/y) but apparel inventories increased 0.6% (-1.5% y/y). Textile product inventories rose 0.2% (0.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | 0.3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.2 | 7.3 | 5.7 | -2.9 |
| Shipments | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | -0.0 | 0.1 | -1.6 | 3.9 | 1.9 | -1.1 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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